Vaccine safety signals by vaccine and event

Note: first load takes a few seconds while the app aggregates 1990–2025 VAERS data. Subsequent interactions are fast.

All (vaccine, event) pairs flagged by ≥2 of 4 disproportionality methods (GPS/EBGM, PRR, ROR, IC) across CDC VAERS 1990–2025. The splash shows the top 2000 by Peak EB05 ; use search to find any other pair. Click any row to see the time-course plot.

Vaccine Type groups vaccines by type (COVID19, INFLUENZA, MMR, etc.). Emerging (amber) marks pairs that first appeared in the last 4 quarters of the dataset.

VAERS caveat: VAERS reports are submitted voluntarily; counts reflect reporting rates, not incidence rates. Disproportionate reporting is a statistical hypothesis generator, not evidence of causation. Vaccine-event pairs with large counts may reflect reporting campaigns rather than safety signals.

Disclaimer: disproportionate reporting is a statistical pattern, not evidence of causation. Signals are hypotheses requiring further investigation. VAERS data are available at vaers.hhs.gov .

VAERS Vaccine Safety Signal Detection

Bayesian and frequentist disproportionality analysis over CDC VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System) data, 1990–2025. Signals are precomputed offline via the same R/targets pipeline used for faers.mobi and served as read-only parquet for interactive exploration.

Data source

VAERS is a national vaccine safety surveillance system jointly managed by the FDA and CDC. Reports are submitted voluntarily by healthcare providers, manufacturers, and the public. VAERS data are released annually at vaers.hhs.gov .

Statistical methods

  • GPS/EBGM with 2-component Gamma mixture prior (DuMouchel 1999)
  • PRR + Yates chi-squared (Evans 2001, MHRA criterion)
  • ROR with log-normal CI (van Puijenbroek 2002)
  • BCPNN/IC with 95% credibility bound (Bate 1998, Noren 2006)

Time dimension

Per-year rolling 4-quarter window with cumulative-fit prior. All (vaccine, event) pairs flagged by ≥2 of 4 methods are included.

Disclaimer

VAERS reports are submitted voluntarily. Counts reflect reporting rates, not incidence rates. A disproportionate reporting ratio does not prove causation. Large counts may reflect reporting campaigns, media coverage, or recall bias rather than a true vaccine-event association. Treat signals as hypotheses for further investigation.

For official CDC/FDA vaccine safety assessments, see CDC Vaccine Safety and FDA VAERS page .